Wednesday , February 1 2023

In the midst of global uncertainty, the country's risk has risen to 821 points – 21/12/2018


Articles country risk Touched Argentine yesterday's level The highest and highest four years of the Macri period. Articles EMBI JP Morgan index, which is well-known as the country's risk, has been closed for Argentina in 821. Last December, a similar figure was recorded in December 2014.

The index has increased every day this week. Started at 763 points. The combination of these factors explains the performance of analysts. Among them:

– International context. Financial Times said yesterday that Wall Street was registered The worst December 1930, The Great Recession Year. In fact, shares in the United States were registered at the lowest level in 17 months and were closed this week with the worst records since August 2011. The market announced Wednesday that it would double the rate in 2019 on Wednesday. The Fed also recognizes the US economy. A slowdown in the level and a rise in the right to rising could have further strengthened this tendency.

– The role of Cristina Kirchner, who fought against 2019. According to the government, a number of analysts also increase the uncertainty in the direction of economic policy that will keep Argentina's post-2019 presidential election, mainly dealing with the IMF and revising tariffs, investing in the economy. Gabriel RubinsteinThe economist believes that if Macri will be guaranteed next year, the country's risk will drop to 500. But if Cristina wins, she's going to 1200 or 1300 points, because nobody knows what to do. "

– Local factors. An operator in the market yesterday announced that raising repo transactions to fund treasury raises requirements for air-conditioned banks, which does not require the banks to renew their coverage. Thus, the increase in credit changes. Another reason for the country's risk exposure is that the portfolio of investors is closed at the end of the year and the issuance of securities. On the other hand, on the other hand, they pay attention to the dynamics of Argin's foreign debt and the ability to pay back in 2019. When the IMF provides payments for the next year, the country's economy will start to grow less sensitive only. It is the most critical suspicion that the IMF's program will be recessive.

Includes Treasure especially in the country yesterday, "The global part is probably the worst year since 2008". "There was almost no volume," they said, that the bonds were falling.

Country risk is the difference between what Argentina ought to pay for a 10-year debt and what the US would pay as well as the US. Our country should then confirm the rate of 8.21% more than the US payment 11% to borrow. Very high price. Argentina is now out of the voluntary debt market.

In the government, there are two data that prefers financial fronts. Articles the first the pressure of the dollar is based. The dollar fell to $ 14.02 in the week after falling relatively stable this Friday and became $ 39.02. Articles second, "Do investors have little doubt about whether the IMF and the plan will be in line with financial, monetary or external goals?"

Yesterday came in Providing Agency $ 7.619 million Approved on Wednesday after the Board of Executive Directors considered the program compatibility to stand. The program was the third tranche of $ 57,000 million agreed. The fund again praised this week's plan. Articles resources The week totaled $ 66.343 million.

It is estimated that this country raises this risk within the government this week "Frustrating". They believe that all the tasks have been implemented. Agreed with the IMF's financial support for the next year, and with the support of Mauricio Macri, one of the world's leading leaders at the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires. The current level of the country's risk is triggered by the analysis of the Argentinean economy and the country's debate among the negative sides of the investor.

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