Monday , May 29 2023

October: It will have a recovery effect and economic activity will grow by 5%


The largest expansion will come from the non-mining sector, especially consumption, although it will not, according to experts, reach an increase in estimates for 2018.

Just at a time when there is talk of worsening expectations due to a slowdown in the economy in the second half (with a third quarter averaging 2.9%), October could be a surprise.

This is the forecast reported by several market analysts that for the tenth month of this year the economy could expand from 4% to 5%.

This estimate is based on the forecast for the month of the latest review of the Central Bank's expectations (3.6%) and has various reasons, coming from the non-mining sector, supported by two additional business days.

According to Scotiabank's Waldo Riveras, the economic scenario shows that "from the mining side is still quite weak, with a fairly flat production and on the basis of comparison with last year we see negative growth or around zero, repeats itself in October." , adds, "the surprise will come from the non-mining sector, which should have very high dynamism during the month as a private consumption, with two extra working days but could go a step further."

According to the group that also incorporates Jorge Selaive and Benjamín Sierra, "trading data, with the Transbank Transactions Index we build monthly, tell us that it will recover in October." It would be surprising to see the upward trend in the market after successive surprises in the disadvantage, "he explained.

An analysis shared by Gabriel Cestau de Santander. "We have a growth forecast of 4.5% -5%, which is based on three factors: a weak base in October, two more working days and a moderate recovery in sector dynamics.

He explained that "a series of advanced indicators supports this forecast (industrial exports 27% in 12 months, imports of consumer goods 12.7%, capital goods imports 39.7%, SIC electricity generation 7.6%)".

In fact, Miguel Ricaurte de Itaú recalls that "last year activity shrunk by 0.6% between September and October due to the low yield of non-mining activity", therefore also foresees an extension of close to 5%.

Nathan Pincheira de Fynsa (4.5-5%) and Sergio Lehmann of BCI (about 4%) are added to this screen. The latter deepens the fact that it is "in no way obeying a change of panic".
Scotiabank deepens this analysis: "Our vision does not change in the medium term beyond the month's data.

As long as we do not notice that investment projects are starting to run, we will continue with an activity that is not much more dynamic than we have seen in this second half. "

In this context, they maintain their final estimate for 2018 at around 3.9%.

Interest rate

If the best quarterly performance will affect the Monetary Policy meeting on December 4, the Scotiabank report shows that it will also depend on the behavior of inflation in the remaining months, projected for the end of the year at 3, 2%, due to the fact that "we see more foreign exchange transfers towards the end of the year that will be reflected in the CPI".

With this combination of factors, they expect an increase in the monetary policy price by 25 basis points, closing in 2018 by 3%. Meanwhile, the scenario for 2019 is maintained with adjustments. The latest forecast of the Forecast Survey corrects downward projection from 3.7% to 3.5% and there are few who expect that this estimate could come back to adjust to negative in the coming months.


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