Tuesday , January 31 2023

Analysis: There is nothing new at the Central Economic Conference | Chinese economy US-China trade war


The United States-China trade war in 2018 will result in complete conflict, investment, export, consumption, full fluctuation of the troika, internal debt, financial risks, economic growth (Epoch Times, December 22, 2018) China's economy is a development point. But finally, the CPC Central Committee did not show any signs that the Economic Business Conference was pushing for reform, but gave a signal of commitment to a certain line and "black line".

An annual CPC Central Economic Business Conference was held in Beijing on December 19-21. At the meeting, the economic policies and specific arrangements identified by the CCP include "positive financial policy and prudent monetary policy" and "six stable" (existing policies such as fixed income, fixed financial, fixed foreign trade, fixed investment, fixed investment and fixed expectations).

At the same time, the CCP admitted that it was "facing a major change in the last 100 years in the world." Last year, he admits that "to achieve progress," generally, there is "stability and change in the middle" when the tone is accepted.

The CCP's statement was less optimistic about the prospects of the US-Chinese trade war after the end of the 90-day devotion with its established policy to halt the crisis, not the basic solution to the problem.

In fact, the CCP's key focus on economic activity next year is that the CCP does not want to reform, and it is open to the old way to stimulate the economy, such as the "great freedom" of money and finance, to combat the ongoing trade war.

The CCP's policy is fraudulent and real, and the dead are not changed.

At the Central Economic Conference of the Chinese Communist Party this year, the "macroeconomics should strengthen the counter-cyclical regulation" policy center. This means that the CCP is acting against it in the context of global monetary regulation, which in fact implies an old way of stimulating the economy. Therefore, the meeting suggested that "positive financial policy should be strengthened to increase effectiveness" and "stable monetary policy should be at the moderate level".

The CCP's policy statement is often erroneous and realistic, for example, fiscal policy requires "greater tax and deficit reduction" and "further increase in local government bonds".

The issue is that taxpayers are less important in reducing the taxation policy of the CCP. Financial commentator Qin Peng clearly said: "Believe, you are innocent." Qin Peng said in 2017 that 1 trillion tax deductions were officially declared, many businesses were linked to or relocated to Southeast Asia, and 1 trillion tax deductions in 2018 were being summoned by the economist entrepreneur.

Meanwhile, since October of this year, the CCP's financial and tax revenues have "turned upside down", and in November, tax and tax revenues are closer to those in April. In other words, the CCP already has a "tax reduction" flag to cover the reality of the acute economic crisis, nor can it actually reduce the burden of CCP or objective corporate tax. In addition, the CCP has already raised the social insurance policy to pay for this insurance premium and intends to collect more taxes from private enterprises by 2019.

While the CCP's tax reduction and reductions policy is illogical, local governments have a supportive policy to issue bonds.

The local debt crisis of the COP has been on the verge of exhaustion. CHP has previously tried to delay the crisis; today the trade war is indentious and "disturbed in confusion", the CCP can only borrow money to silence drinking and thirst and to build infrastructure to stimulate the local governments' economy.

As for the tight monetary policy and the policy of financing private enterprises, the CCP seeks to release as much water as possible in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity without prioritizing the financial crisis.

Of course, the monetary policy of the CCP is also a virtual truth: the release of water is as realistic as possible, and the financing of private enterprises is difficult to solve. The CCP's plan for private enterprises is to "increase the direct funding ratio" because direct financing is borrowed from outside businesses or individuals. The problem is that Chinese private enterprises suffer from unfair treatment in the CCP system and it is difficult to borrow from banks, so there is a dilemma of financial difficulties. Now the CCP has allowed private enterprises to "increase direct financing", meaning that private enterprises are losing themselves and looking for themselves, as the policy of supporting private businesses is imaginary.

The CCP's position on China's structural reform of foreign trade and the future of the trade war is still false and realistic – "structural policy should strengthen institutional mechanisms," ie the CCP's economic structure reform is to build a mechanism to "strengthen the system." In other words, the ability to change the CCP system is not affordable for the CCP system.

The CCP's housing policy has changed.

The CCP meeting is almost always a rehash, although some policy adjustments have been made to the housing market, and the main concern that the Chinese are worried is because of the city's policy.

The CCP meeting is based on "city policy, classification management," "creating a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market." From the time the Chinese Communist Party "reformed" its commercial apartment, the Chinese housing market became a slogan of the COP's lifeblood "blood bag", the CCP increased housing prices through money laundering and land funding, and then maintained political power from the people's wealth market. for the wealthy.

For this reason, over the years, the Chinese housing market has been regulated by the government and home prices have increased since the CCP's housing policy has always been aimed at stabilizing high housing prices and keeping the "blood suction mechanism" of the housing market, because of the real drowning of housing prices.

The CCP's housing policy statement can be rightly considered: the housing market is a "long-term mechanism" that does not allow the housing market to collapse. A special approach is to "make a policy for the city," indicating that the CAP will ease pressure on local controls by housing prices. Funds for changes in the CCP housing market policy are that housing prices have fallen in the second place and the Chinese housing market is getting worse.

Recently, the Heze Municipal Government of Shandong Province has been able to eliminate the sale of new homes in the country, and then announced restrictions on trade restrictions. However, the Chinese government's latest housing measures have been loosened by the Chinese housing market. The last CCP's "City Policy" policy is understood to be the support of the COP to local governments and encourages local governments to find ways to safeguard the housing and housing market prices.

The CCP's meeting also talked about most of the economic activities next year, but all of them are large and empty official statements, and there is still only one point, ie all the difficulties and crises facing the Chinese economy to strengthen the party leadership, is accepted. . #

Executive Editor: Lin Shiyuan

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