Friday , February 3 2023

Analysis: Together, Babish proved to be his main rival, so he took voters to the Pirates


Elections to the Chamber of Deputies have redrawn the political map of the Czech Republic. Andrei Babish’s ANO movement was somewhat defeated, and the Coalition together surprisingly won many. Together with the pirates and the STAN coalition, they won a majority in the lower house of parliament. However, the pirates themselves paid a bloody tax for the success of the democratic parties. It has completely disappeared from the traditional left House. Aktuálně.cz analyzes the election results.

This year’s election to the Chamber of Deputies was the highest since 1998, with 65 percent of voters going to the polls. Most likely, it was their deployment that won the Coalition of ODS, TOP 09 and KDU-LSL. The trio managed to believe that the vote was an opportunity to oust Andrej Babis from power.

“It simply came to our notice then. If that is the case, it means greater mobilization in cities, especially among the middle, younger and youngest groups of voters, “said sociologist Jean Herzmann. was able to motivate, “he said.

At the same time, a coalition of pirates and mayors sought the position of the main rival of the Babish movement. However, due to the emergence of ODS, TOP 09 and KDU-LSL as the most likely conquest of Babish, the merger of these two institutions lost a more significant success in the finale of the campaign. Many opponents of the current prime minister are betting on this card at the last moment.

Fiala seemed more acceptable to the Prime Minister than Bartos

“It worked like a banner. We want to defeat Andrei Babis, so we will vote together, because it makes more sense than voting for the bandits,” said political scientist Lubomir Kopechek. Sociologist Herzmann points out that the withdrawal of pirates and STAN in favor of voters has long been observed. His poll on Monday came as no surprise when he saw the coalition gain only 16 percent. The result did not surprise him.

“The pirates and the STAN coalition began to weaken in June. A second factor was added to this. People also decided who wanted to be prime minister. Mr Fiala seemed more acceptable in terms of type because he was older and more dignified than Ivan Bartosz, who looked unusual enough to disappoint Pirates and STAN’s warm-hearted fans, “said Herzmann. paid the call when they supported.

Although the YES movement lost two percent of support compared to the 2017 elections, it remained almost in line with the number of voters. A total of 40,000 voters lost. According to political scientist Kopechek, hesitant supporters of the movement can win for two reasons. The first is inflation, which the Coalition in the Union can link to Babish. The second is Babish’s dubious operation through the tax havens described in the Pandora Documents case.

“After what happened here in the spring, after the fall of YES in the elections, it is actually a very strong result,” analyst Ranocha suggests. However, he said that Babish’s defeat was due to the fact that both coalitions have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. “Yes, it is characterized by having a large number of key voters, but on the other hand, it is very difficult to get more, because the antipathy from the other camp to the YES is extreme,” he said.

The failure of the left was a matter of time

This year’s election means a split from the Chamber of Deputies for the two traditional left-wing parties, the CSSD and the CSCM. According to experts, both paid money to Babish for state support. But analysts say there are other reasons for the defeat. According to Kopechek, the long-term internal problems of the Social Democrats ended in this election. This year, the dispute between the party’s two wings, President Jan Hamacek and former Foreign Minister Tomas Petcicek, has been symbolized.

Sociologist Herzmann also draws attention to the silence of the CSSD in the campaign. In addition to President Hamacek, Labor and Social Affairs Minister Jana Maláčova has taken over part of the election agenda, which may be incomprehensible to CSSD supporters. “Voters, especially those who are ready to vote for social democracy or the left in general, want very clear messages and a clear leader,” he said.

CSSD President Jan Hamacek resigned after the party's failure in the election.

CSSD President Jan Hamacek resigned after the party’s failure in the election. | Photo: Honza Mudra

The communists had time. CSR is declining naturally due to the aging of rock voters, and new ones are not coming. The party failed to win new voters. According to political scientist Kopechek, a weak routine campaign was signed without new content. Second, the communists failed under the long leadership of Wojciech Philippi. He has led the party for the past 15 years.

“Vojtěch Filip is associated with so many electoral defeats at all possible levels, including the 2017 elections. In addition, when a party leader announces in the elections that he wants to end them as chairman, he can do nothing more. “In addition, acting as a representative of a completely different party, I mean the car he drives (luxury BMW, editor’s note), which may not work well for ordinary KSČM voters,” Kopeček said.

“ODS will commit suicide with YES”

On the other hand, Tomia Okamura’s SPD movement was an important campaign. Whether in pre-election debates or at fairs where food is often sold at unrealistic prices. The SPD did not even repeat the results of the last election, which won more than 10 percent of the vote. It garnered just over 9 percent of the vote this year. However, according to the recalculation, he lost only a few thousand voters.

“The SPD has paid for the emergence of several small creatures of a similar nature. In other constellations, the SPD would have had a better result than in previous elections,” said analyst Ranocha, referring to the Free Bloc, Oath and Tricolor, Free and Private Union. “Otherwise, the SPD would certainly have won the votes of the Free Bloc,” Herzmann said, noting that the bloc originated from former SPD members. He won 1.3 percent of the vote.

The Czech Republic is now in a situation where, eight years later, a government can be formed without Andrei Babis’s ANO movement. Both the Union and the Pirate Coalition consider STAN in the new Chamber of Deputies with a comfortable majority of 108 deputies. However, it is important for Babish to remain prime minister for a number of reasons and to lead the executive branch for another four years. According to political scientist Kopechek, his main efforts will be to dismantle the coalition together and divert the ODS, which is dominated by the ANO.

“But if the ODS had done that, it would have been a political suicide. I’m not saying it would be easy to form a coalition of Pirates and STAN and work without problems. We all know it won’t happen. I know, I can’t agree with Yes, I can’t imagine. The current ODS leadership has invested heavily in the Coalition in the Union, “Kopecek concluded.

There is no choice but to be a government of pirates and mayors, and I hope the president is aware of this, says Marketa Pekarova Adamova, chairwoman of TOP 09. | Video: Michael Rozsypal

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